Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

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Read Full Article (file size: 4431963 bytes) Cited by JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111, D19306, doi:10.1029/2006JD007100, 2006 Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes D. T. Shindell NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA G. Faluvegi NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA D. S. Stevenson School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK M. C. Krol Space Research Organisation Netherlands, Utrecht, Netherlands L. K. Emmons Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA J.-F. Lamarque Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA G. Pétron Global Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA F. J. Dentener Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission, Ispra, Italy K. Ellingsen Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway M. G. Schultz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany O. Wild Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan M. Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria C. S. Atherton Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA D. J. Bergmann Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA I. Bey Ecole Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland T. Butler Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany J. Cofala Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany W. J. Collins Met Office, Exeter, UK R. G. Derwent rdscientific, Newbury, UK R. M. Doherty School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK J. Drevet Ecole Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland H. J. Eskes Atmospheric Composition Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands A. M. Fiore Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA M. Gauss Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway D. A. Hauglustaine Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France L. W. Horowitz Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA I. S. A. Isaksen Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway M. G. Lawrence Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany V. Montanaro Dipartimento di Fisica, Università L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy J.-F. Müller Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium G. Pitari Dipartimento di Fisica, Università L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy M. J. Prather Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA J. A. Pyle Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK S. Rast Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany J. M. Rodriguez Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA M. G. Sanderson Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany N. H. Savage Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK S. E. Strahan Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA K. Sudo Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan S. Szopa Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France N. Unger NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA T. P. C. van Noije Atmospheric Composition Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands G. Zeng Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Abstract We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10–20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20–30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20–35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30–70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas. Received 20 January 2006; accepted 30 June 2006; published 14 October 2006. Keywords: carbon monoxide; climate change; emissions. Index Terms: 0368 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry; 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 0478 Biogeosciences: Pollution: urban, regional and global (0345, 4251); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325). Read Full Article (file size: 4431963 bytes) Cited by Citation: Shindell, D. T., et al. (2006), Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19306, doi:10.1029/2006JD007100. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

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