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Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Space Research Organisation Netherlands, Utrecht, Netherlands
Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Global Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA
Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA
Ecole Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Met Office, Exeter, UK
rdscientific, Newbury, UK
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Ecole Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Atmospheric Composition Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Dipartimento di Fisica, Università L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium
Dipartimento di Fisica, Università L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
Atmospheric Composition Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10–20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20–30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20–35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30–70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.
Received 20 January 2006; accepted 30 June 2006; published 14 October 2006.
Citation: (2006), Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19306, doi:10.1029/2006JD007100.
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