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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111, G03008, doi:10.1029/2006JG000166, 2006

A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree-ring data

M. N. Evans

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA


B. K. Reichert

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA


A. Kaplan

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA


K. J. Anchukaitis

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA


E. A. Vaganov

V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia


M. K. Hughes

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA


M. A. Cane

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA


Abstract

We investigate the interpretation of tree-ring data using the Vaganov-Shashkin forward model of tree-ring formation. This model is derived from principles of conifer wood growth, and explicitly incorporates a nonlinear daily timescale model of the multivariate environmental controls on tree-ring growth. The model results are shown to be robust with respect to primary moisture and temperature parameter choices. When applied to the simulation of tree-ring widths from North America and Russia from the Mann et al. (1998) and Vaganov et al. (2006) data sets, the forward model produces skill on annual and decadal timescales which is about the same as that achieved using classical dendrochronological statistical modeling techniques. The forward model achieves this without site-by-site tuning as is performed in statistical modeling. The results support the interpretation of this broad-scale network of tree-ring width chronologies primarily as climate proxies for use in statistical paleoclimatic field reconstructions, and point to further applications in climate science.

Received 17 January 2006; accepted 24 May 2006; published 10 August 2006.

Keywords: dendroclimatology; forward modeling; statistical modeling.

Index Terms: 0466 Biogeosciences: Modeling; 0429 Biogeosciences: Climate dynamics (1620); 0473 Biogeosciences: Paleoclimatology and paleoceanography (3344, 4900); 4920 Paleoceanography: Dendrochronology.

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Citation: Evans, M. N., B. K. Reichert, A. Kaplan, K. J. Anchukaitis, E. A. Vaganov, M. K. Hughes, and M. A. Cane (2006), A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree-ring data, J. Geophys. Res., 111, G03008, doi:10.1029/2006JG000166.