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Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis
Mathematical and Computer Sciences Department, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
We present probabilistic projections for spatial patterns of future temperature change using a multivariate Bayesian analysis. The methodology is applied to the output from 21 global coupled climate models used for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The statistical technique is based on the assumption that spatial patterns of climate change can be separated into a large scale signal related to the true forced climate change and a small scale signal due to model bias and variability. The different scales are represented via dimension reduction techniques in a hierarchical Bayesian model. Posterior probabilities are obtained with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We show that with 66% (90%) probability 79% (48%) of the land areas warm by more than 2°C by the end of the century for the SRES A1B scenario.
Received 2 August 2006; accepted 4 February 2007; published 31 March 2007.
Citation: (2007), Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06711, doi:10.1029/2006GL027754.
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