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Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
Department of Meteorology, San Jose State University, San Jose, California, USA
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK
Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany
Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UK
Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Science Systems and Applications, Incorporated, Lanham, Maryland, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Università L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Science Systems and Applications, Incorporated, Lanham, Maryland, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Università L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy
Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETHZ and Physical-Meteorological Observatory, Davos, World Radiation Center, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHG-induced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower-stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values and before the Antarctic. None of the CCMs predict future large decreases in the Arctic column ozone. By 2100, total column ozone is projected to be substantially above 1980 values in all regions except in the tropics.
Received 11 December 2006; accepted 30 May 2007; published 21 August 2007.
Citation: (2007), Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332.
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