Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

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Read Full Article (file size: 881789 bytes) Cited by JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332, 2007 Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century V. Eyring Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany D. W. Waugh Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA G. E. Bodeker National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand E. Cordero Department of Meteorology, San Jose State University, San Jose, California, USA H. Akiyoshi National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan J. Austin Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA S. R. Beagley Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada B. A. Boville National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA P. Braesicke Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK C. Brühl Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany N. Butchart Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UK M. P. Chipperfield Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK M. Dameris Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany R. Deckert Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany M. Deushi Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan S. M. Frith Science Systems and Applications, Incorporated, Lanham, Maryland, USA R. R. Garcia National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA A. Gettelman National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA M. A. Giorgetta Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany D. E. Kinnison National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA E. Mancini Università L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy E. Manzini Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy D. R. Marsh National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA S. Matthes Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany T. Nagashima National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan P. A. Newman NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA J. E. Nielsen Science Systems and Applications, Incorporated, Lanham, Maryland, USA S. Pawson NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA G. Pitari Università L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy D. A. Plummer Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada E. Rozanov Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETHZ and Physical-Meteorological Observatory, Davos, World Radiation Center, Switzerland M. Schraner Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland J. F. Scinocca Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada K. Semeniuk Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada T. G. Shepherd Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada K. Shibata Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan B. Steil Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany R. S. Stolarski NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA W. Tian Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK M. Yoshiki National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Abstract Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHG-induced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower-stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cl_y) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cl_y, with the October mean Antarctic Cl_y peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cl_y returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cl_y near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values and before the Antarctic. None of the CCMs predict future large decreases in the Arctic column ozone. By 2100, total column ozone is projected to be substantially above 1980 values in all regions except in the tropics. Received 11 December 2006; accepted 30 May 2007; published 21 August 2007. Keywords: chemistry-climate modeling; ozone recovery; stratosphere. Index Terms: 0340 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere: composition and chemistry; 0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere: constituent transport and chemistry (3334); 3334 Atmospheric Processes: Middle atmosphere dynamics (0341, 0342). Read Full Article (file size: 881789 bytes) Cited by Citation: Eyring, V., et al. (2007), Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

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