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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L15702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030524, 2007

Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering

Kevin E. Trenberth

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Aiguo Dai

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Abstract

The problem of global warming arises from the buildup of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels and other human activities that change the composition of the atmosphere and alter outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). One geoengineering solution being proposed is to reduce the incoming sunshine by emulating a volcanic eruption. In between the incoming solar radiation and the OLR is the entire weather and climate system and the hydrological cycle. The precipitation and streamflow records from 1950 to 2004 are examined for the effects of volcanic eruptions from El Chichón in March 1982 and Pinatubo in June 1991, taking into account changes from El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 there was a substantial decrease in precipitation over land and a record decrease in runoff and river discharge into the ocean from October 1991–September 1992. The results suggest that major adverse effects, including drought, could arise from geoengineering solutions.

Received 27 April 2007; accepted 26 June 2007; published 1 August 2007.

Keywords: Pinatubo; hydrological cycle; geoengineering.

Index Terms: 1655 Global Change: Water cycles (1836); 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1807 Hydrology: Climate impacts; 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 3354 Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation (1854).

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Citation: Trenberth, K. E., and A. Dai (2007), Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030524.