Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP

	Become an AGU Member Subscribe to AGU Journals



Read Full Article (file size: 216417 bytes) Cited by GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740, 2007 Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP F. Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK M. R. Huddleston Met Office, Exeter, UK M. Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse, France D. Peake Met Office, Exeter, UK T. N. Palmer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK T. N. Stockdale European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK M. K. Davey Met Office, Exeter, UK Department of Mathematics, University College London, London, UK S. Ineson Met Office, Exeter, UK A. Weisheimer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK Abstract Most seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm numbers are produced using statistical-empirical models. However, forecasts can also be made using numerical models which encode the laws of physics, here referred to as “dynamical models”. Based on 12 years of re-forecasts and 2 years of real-time forecasts, we show that the so-called EUROSIP (EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction) multi-model ensemble of coupled ocean atmosphere models has substantial skill in probabilistic prediction of the number of Atlantic tropical storms. The EUROSIP real-time forecasts correctly distinguished between the exceptional year of 2005 and the average hurricane year of 2006. These results have implications for the reliability of climate change predictions of tropical cyclone activity using similar dynamically-based coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Received 20 May 2007; accepted 19 July 2007; published 24 August 2007. Keywords: tropical storms; seasonal forecasts; multi-model. Index Terms: 3245 Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic forecasting (3238); 3337 Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models (1626, 4928); 7924 Space Weather: Forecasting (2722). Read Full Article (file size: 216417 bytes) Cited by Citation: Vitart, F., M. R. Huddleston, M. Déqué, D. Peake, T. N. Palmer, T. N. Stockdale, M. K. Davey, S. Ineson, and A. Weisheimer (2007), Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740. Published in 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Abstract