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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L07711, doi:10.1029/2006GL028001, 2007

Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit

R. Vautard

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France


P. Yiou

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France


F. D'Andrea

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France


N. de Noblet

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France


N. Viovy

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France


C. Cassou

Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, CNRS URA 1875, Toulouse, France


J. Polcher

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France


P. Ciais

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France


M. Kageyama

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France


Y. Fan

National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA


Abstract

The risk of extreme heat waves in Europe like the unprecedented one of summer 2003 is likely to increase in the future, calling for increased understanding of these phenomena. From an analysis of meteorological records over 58 years, we show that hot summers are preceded by winter rainfall deficits over Southern Europe. Subsequent drought and heat spreads northward throughout Europe in early summer, due to atmospheric transport of anomalously warm and dry air from Southern Europe in southerly wind episodes. This is shown by the observations and supported by mesoscale meteorological sensitivity simulations for Summer 1994. Moreover previous winter and early spring rainfall frequency in the Mediterranean regions is correlated with summer temperature in central continental Europe. These results emphasize the critical role of the water reservoir in the soil of continental Mediterranean areas for the maintenance of European climate.

Received 25 August 2006; accepted 23 February 2007; published 13 April 2007.

Keywords: heatwaves; drought; summer climate.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 0343 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Planetary atmospheres (5210, 5405, 5704); 0325 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Evolution of the atmosphere (1610, 8125); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change.

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Citation: Vautard, R., P. Yiou, F. D'Andrea, N. de Noblet, N. Viovy, C. Cassou, J. Polcher, P. Ciais, M. Kageyama, and Y. Fan (2007), Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07711, doi:10.1029/2006GL028001.