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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L04815, doi:10.1029/2006GL028836, 2007

A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends

J. P. Kossin

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA


K. R. Knapp

National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, Asheville, North Carolina, USA


D. J. Vimont

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA


R. J. Murnane

Risk Prediction Initiative, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, Garrett Park, Maryland, USA


B. A. Harper

Systems Engineering Australia Pty. Ltd., Bridgeman Downs, Queensland, Australia


Abstract

Recently documented trends in the existing records of hurricane intensity and their relationship to increasing sea surface temperatures suggest that hurricane intensity may be increasing due to global warming. However, it is presently being argued that the existing global hurricane records are too inconsistent to accurately measure trends. As a first step in addressing this debate, we constructed a more homogeneous global record of hurricane intensity and found that previously documented trends in some ocean basins are well supported, but in others the existing records contain trends that may be inflated or spurious.

Received 22 November 2006; accepted 30 January 2007; published 28 February 2007.

Keywords: climate change; hurricane; reanalysis.

Index Terms: 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology.

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Citation: Kossin, J. P., K. R. Knapp, D. J. Vimont, R. J. Murnane, and B. A. Harper (2007), A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04815, doi:10.1029/2006GL028836.