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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028884, 2007

East African lightning as a precursor of Atlantic hurricane activity

Colin Price

Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel


Yoav Yair

Department of Life and Natural Sciences, Open University of Israel, Raanana, Israel


Mustafa Asfur

Department of Life and Natural Sciences, Open University of Israel, Raanana, Israel


Abstract

Recent years have shown the tremendous damage and loss of life that can be caused by Atlantic Basin hurricanes. The majority of these hurricanes start as African easterly waves (AEWs) over the African continent. In this paper we provide evidence showing the connection between lightning activity over eastern Africa, and the AEWs that leave the west coast of Africa, some of which develop into hurricanes. We have analyzed the 2005 and 2006 hurricane seasons, one a very active hurricane year (2005), and the other a very quiet year (2006). More than 90% of the tropical storms and hurricanes during these 2 years were preceded by periods of above average thunderstorm activity in eastern Africa. During the 2006 season not only was the east African lightning activity 23% lower than during 2005, but there was 36% less lightning activity over the entire African continent during 2006. We suggest the possibility that lightning activity in tropical Africa may represent an important precursor of Atlantic hurricane formation.

Received 26 November 2006; accepted 5 April 2007; published 4 May 2007.

Keywords: lightning; hurricanes; tropical storm.

Index Terms: 3314 Atmospheric Processes: Convective processes; 3324 Atmospheric Processes: Lightning; 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology.

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Citation: Price, C., Y. Yair, and M. Asfur (2007), East African lightning as a precursor of Atlantic hurricane activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028884.