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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007

Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming

Gabriel A. Vecchi

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


Brian J. Soden

School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA


Abstract

To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (Vs) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in Vs over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these Vs changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.

Received 27 November 2006; accepted 20 March 2007; published 18 April 2007.

Keywords: climate change; hurricanes; global warming.

Index Terms: 0429 Biogeosciences: Climate dynamics (1620); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology.

Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 764764 bytes)

Citation: Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden (2007), Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.