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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH,
VOL. 112,
A05104,
doi:10.1029/2006JA011904,
2007
Prediction of the 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks: Evaluation of an empirical interplanetary shock
propagation model
K.-H. Kim
Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea
Y.-J. Moon
Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea
K.-S. Cho
Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, South Korea
Abstract
The traveltimes of interplanetary (IP) shocks at 1 AU associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be predicted by the
empirical shock arrival (ESA) model of Gopalswamy et al. [2004] based on a constant IP acceleration. We evaluate the ESA model
using 91 IP shocks identified from sudden commencement (SC)/sudden impulse (SI) on the Earth and by examining the solar wind
data from the ACE and WIND satellites during the period of 1997 to 2002. Out of 91 CME-IP shock pairs, 55 events (∼60%) were
predicted within ±12 hours from the ESA model. The ESA model predicted ∼59% (43 out of 73) of the events during solar maximum
(1999–2002) and ∼67% (12 out of 18) of the events during solar minimum (1997–1998) within ±12 hours from the predicted curve.
Comparing the predicted (T mod) and observed (T obs) shock arrival times during solar maximum, we find that the deviations (ΔT = T obs − T mod) of shock arrival times from the ESA model strongly correlate with the CME initial speeds (V CME) (linear correlation, r = 0.77). Such a strong correlation indicates that the constant IP acceleration in the ESA model is not reasonably well applied
for all V CME. From the linear regression analysis, we obtain a linear fit to the relationship (r = −0.62) between IP shock traveltime T (in hours) and V CME (in kilometer per second) during the solar maximum, which can be expressed as T = 76.86 − 0.02V CME. In addition, we find that the IP shocks associated with the fast CMEs corresponding to strong SC/SI events have short traveltimes
compared with other fast CMEs and that there is a negative correlation between the SC/SI strength and the IP shock traveltime.
We suggest that this negative correlation is due to not only the V CME but also the CME mass/density and discuss the influence of the mass/density of CME on the arrival time of IP shock at 1 AU.
Received 8
June
2006;
accepted 17
January
2007;
published 17
May
2007.
Keywords: CME;
IP shock;
solar wind.
Index Terms: 2101 Interplanetary Physics: Coronal mass ejections (7513); 2139 Interplanetary Physics: Interplanetary shocks; 2111 Interplanetary Physics: Ejecta, driver gases, and magnetic clouds; 2784 Magnetospheric Physics: Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions.
Read Full Article (file size: 530123 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Kim, K.-H., Y.-J. Moon, and K.-S. Cho
(2007),
Prediction of the 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks: Evaluation of an empirical interplanetary shock
propagation model,
J. Geophys. Res.,
112,
A05104,
doi:10.1029/2006JA011904.
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
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