Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on ozone pollution predictability estimated through meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts

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Read Full Article (file size: 1100631 bytes) Cited by JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, D04304, doi:10.1029/2006JD007429, 2007 Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on ozone pollution predictability estimated through meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts Fuqing Zhang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA Naifang Bei Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA John W. Nielsen-Gammon Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA Guohui Li Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA Renyi Zhang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA Amy Stuart Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA Altug Aksoy Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA Abstract This study explores the sensitivity of ozone predictions from photochemical grid point simulations to small meteorological initial perturbations that are realistic in structure and evolution. Through both meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 and the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model-3, the 24-hour ensemble mean of meteorological conditions and the ozone concentrations compared fairly well against the observations for a high-ozone event that occurred on 30 August during the Texas Air Quality Study of 2000 (TexAQS2000). Moreover, it was also found that there were dramatic uncertainties in the ozone prediction in Houston and surrounding areas due to initial meteorological uncertainties for this event. The high uncertainties in the ozone prediction in Houston and surrounding areas due to small initial wind and temperature uncertainties clearly demonstrated the importance of accurate representation of meteorological conditions for the Houston ozone prediction and the need for probabilistic evaluation and forecasting for air pollution, especially those supported by regulating agencies. Received 21 April 2006; accepted 16 August 2006; published 22 February 2007. Keywords: air quality modeling; meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts; ozone predictability. Index Terms: 0345 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution: urban and regional (0305, 0478, 4251); 0368 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry; 3329 Atmospheric Processes: Mesoscale meteorology; 3355 Atmospheric Processes: Regional modeling. Read Full Article (file size: 1100631 bytes) Cited by Citation: Zhang, F., N. Bei, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, G. Li, R. Zhang, A. Stuart, and A. Aksoy (2007), Impacts of meteorological uncertainties on ozone pollution predictability estimated through meteorological and photochemical ensemble forecasts, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D04304, doi:10.1029/2006JD007429. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

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