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SPACE WEATHER, VOL. 5, S06003, doi:10.1029/2006SW000272, 2007

Sun-to-thermosphere simulation of the 28–30 October 2003 storm with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

Gábor Tóth

Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA


Darren L. De Zeeuw

Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA


Tamas I. Gombosi

Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA


Ward B. Manchester

Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA


Aaron J. Ridley

Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA


Igor V. Sokolov

Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA


Ilia I. Roussev

Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA


Abstract

In late October and early November 2003 a series of some of the most powerful solar eruptions ever registered shook the heliosphere. These “Halloween storms” damaged 28 satellites, knocking two out of commission, diverted airplane routes, and caused power failures in Sweden, among other problems. This paper presents a 4-day end-to-end simulation of one of the major events (following the X17 flare) that produced the most geoeffective interval of the Halloween storm. The simulation was carried out with the newly developed Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF, see http://csem.engin.umich.edu/SWMF) that self-consistently couples physical domain models spanning from the solar corona to the upper atmosphere. The various attempts and iterations leading to the final simulation are also described. We briefly discuss the technological advances enabling the faster than real-time operation of the SWMF with the required high resolution. We compare the simulation results with observations from space- and ground-based measurements. We have also performed a reference magnetospheric simulation driven by ACE and Geotail observations and compared its results with the Sun-to-thermosphere simulation and the magnetospheric observations. The magnetic structure of the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed at the L1 point on the ACE spacecraft is not correctly reproduced because of the insufficient observations and theoretical understanding of the CME initiation mechanism. On the other hand, we find that the SWMF reasonably well reproduced both the hydrodynamic characteristics of the coronal mass ejection and some of the major indexes characterizing the strength of the geomagnetic storms.

Received 26 July 2006; accepted 23 March 2007; published 13 June 2007.

Keywords: Halloween Storm; simulation; space weather.

Index Terms: 2101 Interplanetary Physics: Coronal mass ejections (7513); 2788 Magnetospheric Physics: Magnetic storms and substorms (7954); 7959 Space Weather: Models.

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Citation: Tóth, G., D. L. De Zeeuw, T. I. Gombosi, W. B. Manchester, A. J. Ridley, I. V. Sokolov, and I. I. Roussev (2007), Sun-to-thermosphere simulation of the 28–30 October 2003 storm with the Space Weather Modeling Framework, Space Weather, 5, S06003, doi:10.1029/2006SW000272.