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Read Full Article (file size: 1484058 bytes) Cited by
SPACE WEATHER,
VOL. 5,
S06003,
doi:10.1029/2006SW000272,
2007
Sun-to-thermosphere simulation of the 28–30 October 2003 storm with the Space Weather Modeling Framework
Gábor Tóth
Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Darren L. De Zeeuw
Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Tamas I. Gombosi
Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Ward B. Manchester
Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Aaron J. Ridley
Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Igor V. Sokolov
Center for Space Environment Modeling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Ilia I. Roussev
Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Abstract
In late October and early November 2003 a series of some of the most powerful solar eruptions ever registered shook the heliosphere.
These “Halloween storms” damaged 28 satellites, knocking two out of commission, diverted airplane routes, and caused power
failures in Sweden, among other problems. This paper presents a 4-day end-to-end simulation of one of the major events (following
the X17 flare) that produced the most geoeffective interval of the Halloween storm. The simulation was carried out with the
newly developed Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF, see
http://csem.engin.umich.edu/SWMF) that self-consistently couples physical domain models spanning from the solar corona to the upper atmosphere. The various
attempts and iterations leading to the final simulation are also described. We briefly discuss the technological advances
enabling the faster than real-time operation of the SWMF with the required high resolution. We compare the simulation results
with observations from space- and ground-based measurements. We have also performed a reference magnetospheric simulation
driven by ACE and Geotail observations and compared its results with the Sun-to-thermosphere simulation and the magnetospheric
observations. The magnetic structure of the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed at the L1 point on the ACE spacecraft is
not correctly reproduced because of the insufficient observations and theoretical understanding of the CME initiation mechanism.
On the other hand, we find that the SWMF reasonably well reproduced both the hydrodynamic characteristics of the coronal mass
ejection and some of the major indexes characterizing the strength of the geomagnetic storms.
Received 26
July
2006;
accepted 23
March
2007;
published 13
June
2007.
Keywords: Halloween Storm;
simulation;
space weather.
Index Terms: 2101 Interplanetary Physics: Coronal mass ejections (7513); 2788 Magnetospheric Physics: Magnetic storms and substorms (7954); 7959 Space Weather: Models.
Read Full Article (file size: 1484058 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Tóth, G., D. L. De Zeeuw, T. I. Gombosi, W. B. Manchester, A. J. Ridley, I. V. Sokolov, and I. I. Roussev
(2007),
Sun-to-thermosphere simulation of the 28–30 October 2003 storm with the Space Weather Modeling Framework,
Space Weather,
5,
S06003,
doi:10.1029/2006SW000272.
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
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