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SPACE WEATHER, VOL. 5, S06001, doi:10.1029/2006SW000281, 2007

November 2004 space weather events: Real-time observations and forecasts

L. Trichtchenko

Geomagnetic Laboratory, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada


A. Zhukov

Solar Influences Data Analysis Center, Royal Observatory, Brussels, Belgium


R. van der Linden

Solar Influences Data Analysis Center, Royal Observatory, Brussels, Belgium


S. M. Stankov

Institute of Communications and Navigation, German Aerospace Centre, Neustrelitz, Germany


N. Jakowski

Institute of Communications and Navigation, German Aerospace Centre, Neustrelitz, Germany


I. Stanisławska

Space Research Centre, Warsaw, Poland


G. Juchnikowski

Space Research Centre, Warsaw, Poland


P. Wilkinson

Ionospheric Prediction Service Radio and Space Services, Haymarket, New South Wales, Australia


G. Patterson

Ionospheric Prediction Service Radio and Space Services, Haymarket, New South Wales, Australia


A. W. P. Thomson

British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, UK


Abstract

Space weather events with their solar origin and their distribution through the heliosphere affect the whole magnetosphere-ionosphere-Earth system. Their real-time monitoring and forecasting are important for science and technology. Here we discuss one of the largest space weather events of Solar Cycle 23, in November 2004, which was also one of the most difficult periods to forecast. Nine halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), interacting on their way through the interplanetary medium and forming two geoeffective interplanetary structures, exemplify the complexity of the event. Real-time and quasi-real-time observations of the ground geomagnetic field show rapid and extensive expansion of the auroral oval to 55° in geomagnetic latitude accompanied by great variability of the ionosphere. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) seen in ground networks, such as power grids and pipelines, were significant during the event, although no problems were reported. Forecasts of the CME propagation, global and local ground geomagnetic activity, and ionospheric parameters, issued by several regional warning centers, revealed certain deficiencies in predictions of the interplanetary characteristics of the CME, size of the geomagnetic disturbances, and complexity of the ionospheric variations produced by this event. This paper is a collective report based on the materials presented at the splinter session on November 2004 events during the first European Space Weather Week.

Received 11 September 2006; accepted 25 January 2007; published 7 June 2007.

Keywords: forecasting; magnetic storms; space weather.

Index Terms: 2788 Magnetospheric Physics: Magnetic storms and substorms (7954); 2722 Magnetospheric Physics: Forecasting (7924, 7964).

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Citation: Trichtchenko, L., A. Zhukov, R. van der Linden, S. M. Stankov, N. Jakowski, I. Stanisławska, G. Juchnikowski, P. Wilkinson, G. Patterson, and A. W. P. Thomson (2007), November 2004 space weather events: Real-time observations and forecasts, Space Weather, 5, S06001, doi:10.1029/2006SW000281.