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EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, VOL. 88, NO. 36, doi:10.1029/2007EO360002, 2007

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Revisited

Michael E. Mann

Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA


Kerry A. Emanuel

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA


Greg J. Holland

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., USA


Peter J. Webster

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA


Abstract

Vigorous discussions have taken place recently in Eos [e.g., Mann and Emanuel, 2006; Landsea, 2007] and elsewhere [Emanuel, 2005; Webster et al., 2005; Hoyos et al., 2006; Trenberth and Shea, 2006; Kossin et al., 2007] regarding trends in North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity and their potential connection with anthropogenic climate change. In one study, for example [Landsea, 2007], it is argued that a substantial underestimate of Atlantic tropical cyclone counts in earlier decades arising from insufficient observing systems invalidates the conclusion that trends in TC behavior may be connected to climate change. Here we argue that such connections are in fact robust with respect to uncertainties in earlier observations.

Published 4 September 2007.

Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 3339 Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504); 4513 Oceanography: Physical: Decadal ocean variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 4215).

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Citation: Mann, M. E., K. A. Emanuel, G. J. Holland, and P. J. Webster (2007), Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Revisited, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(36), doi:10.1029/2007EO360002.