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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L05404, doi:10.1029/2007GL029245, 2007

Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology

Daniel M. Tartakovsky

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA


Abstract

We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of subsurface contamination. PRA provides a natural venue for the rigorous quantification of structural (model) and parametric uncertainties inherent in predictions of subsurface flow and transport. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a subsurface system (e.g., a buried solid-waste tank, an aquitard, a remediation effort) and proceeds by using uncertainty quantification techniques to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault-tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g., aquifer contamination). Since PRA relies on subjective probabilities, it is ideally suited for assimilation of expert judgment and causal relationships.

Received 7 January 2007; accepted 14 February 2007; published 15 March 2007.

Keywords: stochastic; groundwater; contaminant transport.

Index Terms: 1829 Hydrology: Groundwater hydrology; 1832 Hydrology: Groundwater transport; 1869 Hydrology: Stochastic hydrology; 1873 Hydrology: Uncertainty assessment (3275); 1875 Hydrology: Vadose zone.

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Citation: Tartakovsky, D. M. (2007), Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05404, doi:10.1029/2007GL029245.