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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L12704, doi:10.1029/2007GL029951, 2007

Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts

Jürg Luterbacher

National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland


Mark A. Liniger

Climate Services, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), Zurich, Switzerland


Annette Menzel

Chair of Ecoclimatology, Technical University Munich, Freising, Germany


Nicole Estrella

Chair of Ecoclimatology, Technical University Munich, Freising, Germany


Paul M. Della-Marta

Climate Services, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), Zurich, Switzerland


Christian Pfister

National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR) and Institute of History, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland


This Rutishauser

National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland


Elena Xoplaki

National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland


Abstract

Updated European averaged autumn and winter surface air temperature (SAT) timeseries indicate that the autumn 2006 and winter 2007 were extremely likely (>95%) the warmest for more than 500 years. In both seasons, the European SAT anomaly is widespread with anomalies up to three standard deviations from normal. The anomalous warmth is associated with strong anticyclonic conditions and warm air advection from south west. Phenological impacts related to this warmth included some plant species having a partial second flowering or extended flowering till the beginning of winter. Species that typically flower in early spring were found to have a distinct earlier flowering after winter 2007.

Received 9 March 2007; accepted 15 May 2007; published 19 June 2007.

Keywords: paleoclimatology; phenology; autumn 2006; winter 2007.

Index Terms: 3344 Atmospheric Processes: Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 0476 Biogeosciences: Plant ecology (1851).

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Citation: Luterbacher, J., M. A. Liniger, A. Menzel, N. Estrella, P. M. Della-Marta, C. Pfister, T. Rutishauser, and E. Xoplaki (2007), Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12704, doi:10.1029/2007GL029951.