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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977, 2007

Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations

M. A. Gaertner

Environmental Sciences Faculty, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain


D. Jacob

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany


V. Gil

Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain


M. Domínguez

Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain


E. Padorno

Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain


E. Sánchez

Environmental Sciences Faculty, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain


M. Castro

Environmental Sciences Faculty, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain


Abstract

Tropical cyclones form only under specific environmental conditions. Anthropogenic climate change might alter the geographical areas where tropical cyclones can develop. Using an ensemble of regional climate models, we find an increase in the extremes of cyclone intensity over the Mediterranean Sea under a climate change scenario. At least for the most sensitive model, the increase in intensity is clearly associated with the formation of tropical cyclones. Previous studies did not find evidence of changes in the projected areas of formation of tropical cyclones (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; Walsh, 2004; Lionello et al., 2002). Those studies were based either on relatively low-resolution global climate models or on one particular regional climate model. The use of a multi-model ensemble of relatively high-resolution regional climate models has allowed us to detect for the first time a risk of tropical cyclone development over the Mediterranean Sea under future climate change conditions.

Received 13 March 2007; accepted 22 May 2007; published 28 July 2007.

Keywords: regional climate change; tropical cyclones; Mediterranean.

Index Terms: 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 3339 Atmospheric Processes: Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504); 3355 Atmospheric Processes: Regional modeling; 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology; 1817 Hydrology: Extreme events.

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Citation: Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Domínguez, E. Padorno, E. Sánchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.