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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 34,
L11706,
doi:10.1029/2007GL030000,
2007
Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Purdue Climate Change Research Center and Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette,
Indiana, USA
Jeremy S. Pal
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Filippo Giorgi
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Xuejie Gao
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Abstract
We find that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations dramatically increase heat stress risk in the Mediterranean region, with
the occurrence of hot extremes increasing by 200 to 500% throughout the region. This heat stress intensification is due to
preferential warming of the hot tail of the daily temperature distribution, with 95th percentile maximum and minimum temperature
magnitude increasing more than 75th percentile magnitude. This preferential warming of the hot tail is dictated in large part
by a surface moisture feedback, with areas of greatest warm-season drying showing the greatest increases in hot temperature
extremes. Fine-scale topographic and humidity effects help to further dictate the spatial variability of the heat stress response,
with increases in dangerous Heat Index magnified in coastal areas. Further, emissions deceleration substantially mitigates
heat stress intensification throughout the Mediterranean region, implying that emissions reductions could reduce the risk
of increased heat stress in the coming decades.
Received 13
March
2007;
accepted 14
May
2007;
published 15
June
2007.
Keywords: climate change;
heat stress;
regional climate model.
Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1807 Hydrology: Climate impacts; 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513).
Read Full Article (file size: 281882 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Diffenbaugh, N. S., J. S. Pal, F. Giorgi, and X. Gao
(2007),
Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
34,
L11706,
doi:10.1029/2007GL030000.
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
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