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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • paleoclimatology
  • temperature
  • global change

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability
  • Biogeosciences: Paleoclimatology and paleoceanography
  • Global Change: Regional climate change

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L16709, 5 PP., 2007
doi:10.1029/2007GL030571

Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large-scale temperature reconstruction

David Frank

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Jan Esper

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Edward R. Cook

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York, USA

Proxy records may display fluctuations in climate variability that are artifacts of changing replication and interseries correlation of constituent time-series and also from methodological considerations. These biases obscure the understanding of past climatic variability, including estimation of extremes, differentiation between natural and anthropogenic forcing, and climate model validation. Herein, we evaluate as a case-study, the Esper et al. (2002) extra-tropical millennial-length temperature reconstruction that shows increasing variability back in time. We provide adjustments considering biases at both the site and hemispheric scales. The variance adjusted record shows greatest differences before 1200 when sample replication is quite low. A reduced amplitude of peak warmth during Medieval Times by about 0.4°C (0.2°C) at annual (40-year) timescales slightly re-draws the longer-term evolution of past temperatures. Many other regional and large-scale reconstructions appear to contain variance-related biases.

Received 3 May 2007; accepted 23 July 2007; published 29 August 2007.

Citation: Frank, D., J. Esper, and E. R. Cook (2007), Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large-scale temperature reconstruction, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030571.

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