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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L17502, doi:10.1029/2007GL031002, 2007

Recent extreme near-surface permafrost temperatures on Svalbard in relation to future climate scenarios

K. Isaksen

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway


R. E. Benestad

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway


C. Harris

School of Earth, Ocean and Planetary Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK


J. L. Sollid

Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway


Abstract

Here we report extreme near-surface permafrost warming resulting from a remarkable temperature anomaly during winter and spring 2005–2006 on Svalbard. We demonstrate that this atmospheric temperature anomaly fell well within the range of predicted warming scenarios for the late 21st Century. The mean December to May air temperature on Svalbard was as high as −4.8°C, some 8.2°C above the 1961–1990 average. The 2006 mean ground temperature at the permafrost table in a monitored borehole in bedrock was 1.8°C higher than the mean for the previous six years, and this corresponded to a 40% reduction in accumulated annual negative degree-days at that depth. The thermal response was detectable to a depth of at least 15 m. In future, a greater frequency of high-temperature anomalies such as this, superimposed on a warming trend, is likely to cause potentially hazardous irregular acceleration in near-surface permafrost thawing.

Received 14 June 2007; accepted 2 August 2007; published 11 September 2007.

Keywords: permafrost; temperature anomalies; future scenarios.

Index Terms: 0702 Cryosphere: Permafrost (0475); 0706 Cryosphere: Active layer; 0750 Cryosphere: Sea ice (4540); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 3337 Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models (1626, 4928).

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Citation: Isaksen, K., R. E. Benestad, C. Harris, and J. L. Sollid (2007), Recent extreme near-surface permafrost temperatures on Svalbard in relation to future climate scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17502, doi:10.1029/2007GL031002.