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Editor's Highlight
Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 140419 bytes)
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 34,
L19703,
doi:10.1029/2007GL031018,
2007
Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets
Andrew J. Weaver
School of Earth and Ocean Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Kirsten Zickfeld
School of Earth and Ocean Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Alvaro Montenegro
School of Earth and Ocean Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Michael Eby
School of Earth and Ocean Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Abstract
A coupled atmosphere-ocean-carbon cycle model is used to examine the long term climate implications of various 2050 greenhouse
gas emission reduction targets. All emission targets considered with less than 60% global reduction by 2050 break the 2.0°C
threshold warming this century, a number that some have argued represents an upper bound on manageable climate warming. Even
when emissions are stabilized at 90% below present levels at 2050, this 2.0°C threshold is eventually broken. Our results
suggest that if a 2.0°C warming is to be avoided, direct CO2 capture from the air, together with subsequent sequestration, would eventually have to be introduced in addition to sustained
90% global carbon emissions reductions by 2050.
Received 15
June
2007;
accepted 7
September
2007;
published 6
October
2007.
Keywords: climate change;
carbon cycle;
global warming.
Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 1622 Global Change: Earth system modeling (1225); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 0428 Biogeosciences: Carbon cycling (4806).
Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 140419 bytes)
Citation: Weaver, A. J., K. Zickfeld, A. Montenegro, and M. Eby
(2007),
Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
34,
L19703,
doi:10.1029/2007GL031018.
Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
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