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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L19704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031209, 2007

Uncertainty in the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming in a perturbed parameter climate model ensemble

Jeff Ridley

Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK


Jason Lowe

Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK


Chris Brierley

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK


Glen Harris

Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK


Abstract

The retreat of Arctic sea ice is a very likely consequence of climate change and part of a key feedback process, which can accelerate global warming. The uncertainty in predictions in the rate of sea ice retreat requires quantification and ultimately reduction via observational constraints. Here we analyse a climate model ensemble with perturbations to parameters in the atmosphere model. We find a large range of the sensitivity of Arctic sea-ice retreat to global temperature change, from 11 to 18% per °C. This is placed in the context of the uncertainty obtained by alternative model ensembles. Reasons for the different sensitivities are explored and we find that differences in the amount of ocean and atmospheric heat transported from low to high latitudes dominates over local radiative contributions to the heat budget. Furthermore, we find no significant relationship between the uncertainty in sea ice response to climate change and climate sensitivity.

Received 3 July 2007; accepted 12 September 2007; published 6 October 2007.

Keywords: Arctic sea ice; climate change; global climate models.

Index Terms: 0748 Cryosphere: Ponds; 1621 Global Change: Cryospheric change (0776); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 0429 Biogeosciences: Climate dynamics (1620).

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Citation: Ridley, J., J. Lowe, C. Brierley, and G. Harris (2007), Uncertainty in the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming in a perturbed parameter climate model ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031209.