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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • climate change
  • permafrost zones
  • soil thermal regime

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Abrupt/rapid climate change
  • Cryosphere: Permafrost
  • Cryosphere: Seasonally frozen ground
  • Cryosphere: Active layer
  • History of Geophysics: Hydrology

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L20711, 6 PP., 2007
doi:10.1029/2007GL031385

An RCM projection of soil thermal and moisture regimes for North American permafrost zones

L. Sushama

Consortium Ouranos on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Changes, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

R. Laprise

Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

D. Caya

Consortium Ouranos on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Changes, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

D. Verseghy

Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

M. Allard

Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, Sainte-Foy, Quebec, Canada

The fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4) projected changes to the soil thermal and moisture regimes for the continuous, discontinuous, sporadic and isolated permafrost regions in North America, for the 2041–2070 period with respect to the 1961–1990 base period, for the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2 scenario are presented. The projections indicate significant increase in the near-surface soil temperatures for all permafrost zones, with maximum warming for the continuous permafrost zone. No significant changes in the timing of minimum and maximum near-surface soil temperatures are projected by the CRCM4. However, the distributions of both minimum and maximum temperatures, at the surface and for the various near-surface soil layers, for the future climate, are significantly different from those for current climate. Intensification of the hydrologic cycle in future climate for the various permafrost zones is projected with important changes to the soil moisture regime, which are reflected in the reduction of the frozen soil moisture content, which in turn increases the deep drainage for all permafrost zones.

Received 19 July 2007; accepted 24 September 2007; published 31 October 2007.

Citation: Sushama, L., R. Laprise, D. Caya, D. Verseghy, and M. Allard (2007), An RCM projection of soil thermal and moisture regimes for North American permafrost zones, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20711, doi:10.1029/2007GL031385.

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