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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • Australian climate
  • land cover change
  • Australian droughts

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Global Change: Land/atmosphere interactions
  • Global Change: Land cover change
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Global Change: Impacts of global change

Abstract

Modeling the impact of historical land cover change on Australia's regional climate

C. A. McAlpine

Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

J. Syktus

Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Department of Natural Resources and Water, Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia

R. C. Deo

Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

P. J. Lawrence

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

H. A. McGowan

Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

I. G. Watterson

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

S. R. Phinn

Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

The Australian landscape has been transformed extensively since European settlement. However, the potential impact of historical land cover change (LCC) on regional climate has been a secondary consideration in the climate change projections. In this study, we analyzed data from a pair of ensembles (10 members each) for the period 1951–2003 to quantify changes in regional climate by comparing results from pre-European and modern-day land cover characteristics. The results of the sensitivity simulations showed the following: a statistically significant warming of the surface temperature, especially for summer in eastern Australia (0.4–2°C) and southwest Western Australia (0.4–0.8°C); a statistically significant decrease in summer rainfall in southeast Australia; and increased surface temperature in eastern regions during the 2002/2003 El Niño drought event. The simulated magnitude and pattern of change indicates that LCC has potentially been an important contributing factor to the observed changes in regional climate of Australia.

Received 30 July 2007; accepted 8 October 2007; published 29 November 2007.

Citation: McAlpine, C. A., J. Syktus, R. C. Deo, P. J. Lawrence, H. A. McGowan, I. G. Watterson, and S. R. Phinn (2007), Modeling the impact of historical land cover change on Australia's regional climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22711, doi:10.1029/2007GL031524.

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