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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • hurricane track
  • microphysics
  • ensembles

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology
  • Atmospheric Processes: Mesoscale meteorology
  • Atmospheric Processes: Convective processes

Abstract

Impact of cloud microphysics on hurricane track forecasts

Robert G. Fovell

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA

Hui Su

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA

Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) at operational resolutions (30 and 12 km) reveal significant track sensitivity to cloud microphysical details, rivaling variation seen in the National Hurricane Center's multi-model consensus forecast. Microphysics appears to directly or indirectly modulate vortex characteristics including size and winds at large radius and possibly other factors involved in hurricane motion. Idealized simulations made at higher (3 km) resolution help isolate the microphysical influence.

Received 18 August 2007; accepted 6 November 2007; published 27 December 2007.

Citation: Fovell, R. G., and H. Su (2007), Impact of cloud microphysics on hurricane track forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24810, doi:10.1029/2007GL031723.

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