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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 34,
L22708,
doi:10.1029/2007GL031764,
2007
Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin
Gregory J. McCabe
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, USA
David M. Wolock
U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas, USA
Abstract
The high demand for water, the recent multiyear drought (1999–2007), and projections of global warming have raised questions
about the long-term sustainability of water supply in the southwestern United States. In this study, the potential effects
of specific levels of atmospheric warming on water-year streamflow in the Colorado River basin are evaluated using a water-balance
model, and the results are analyzed within the context of a multi-century tree-ring reconstruction (1490–1998) of streamflow
for the basin. The results indicate that if future warming occurs in the basin and is not accompanied by increased precipitation,
then the basin is likely to experience periods of water supply shortages more severe than those inferred from the long-term
historical tree-ring reconstruction. Furthermore, the modeling results suggest that future warming would increase the likelihood
of failure to meet the water allocation requirements of the Colorado River Compact.
Received 21
August
2007;
accepted 25
October
2007;
published 27
November
2007.
Keywords: climate change;
Colorado River basin;
water supply.
Index Terms: 1605 Global Change: Abrupt/rapid climate change (4901, 8408); 1884 Hydrology: Water supply.
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Citation: McCabe, G. J., and D. M. Wolock
(2007),
Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
34,
L22708,
doi:10.1029/2007GL031764.
This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. Published in 2007 by the
American Geophysical Union.
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