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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, D24S03, doi:10.1029/2007JD008437, 2007

Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600

N. Scafetta

Physics Department, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA


B. J. West

Mathematical and Information Science Directorate, U.S. Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA


Abstract

A phenomenological thermodynamic model is adopted to estimate the relative contribution of the solar-induced versus anthropogenic-added climate forcing during the industrial era. We compare different preindustrial temperature and solar data reconstruction scenarios since 1610. We argue that a realistic climate scenario is the one described by a large preindustrial secular variability (as the one shown by the paleoclimate temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005)) with the total solar irradiance experiencing low secular variability (as the one shown by Wang et al. (2005)). Under this scenario the Sun might have contributed up to approximately 50% (or more if ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite (Willson and Mordvinov, 2003) is implemented) of the observed global warming since 1900.

Received 18 January 2007; accepted 5 June 2007; published 3 November 2007.

Keywords: climate change; solar forcing; global warming.

Index Terms: 1650 Global Change: Solar variability (7537); 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1699 Global Change: General or miscellaneous; 1739 History of Geophysics: Solar/planetary relationships.

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Citation: Scafetta, N., and B. J. West (2007), Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S03, doi:10.1029/2007JD008437.