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SPACE WEATHER, VOL. 5, S12001, doi:10.1029/2007SW000335, 2007

Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled Sun-to-Earth model: Challenges and first results

V. G. Merkin

Center for Space Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA


M. J. Owens

Center for Space Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA


H. E. Spence

Center for Space Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA


W. J. Hughes

Center for Space Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA


J. M. Quinn

Center for Space Physics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA


Abstract

Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one hand, challenges one encounters in building such forecasting tools, and on the other hand, emphasizing successes that can already be achieved even at this initial stage of Sun-to-Earth modeling.

Received 11 May 2007; accepted 12 August 2007; published 8 December 2007.

Keywords: forecasting; models; solar wind/magnetosphere interactions; magnetosphere/ionosphere interactions.

Index Terms: 2724 Magnetospheric Physics: Magnetopause and boundary layers; 2784 Magnetospheric Physics: Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions; 7924 Space Weather: Forecasting (2722); 7954 Space Weather: Magnetic storms (2788).

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Citation: Merkin, V. G., M. J. Owens, H. E. Spence, W. J. Hughes, and J. M. Quinn (2007), Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled Sun-to-Earth model: Challenges and first results, Space Weather, 5, S12001, doi:10.1029/2007SW000335.