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AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • water supply
  • reservoir operation
  • hedging rule
  • Markov model
  • hydrologic uncertainty

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Water management
  • Hydrology: Water supply
  • Hydrology: Uncertainty assessment

Abstract

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 44, W01416, 11 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2006WR005482

Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 2. A numerical model

Jiing-Yun You

Ven Te Chow Hydrosystems Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA

Ximing Cai

Ven Te Chow Hydrosystems Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA

Optimization models for reservoir operation analysis usually use a heuristic algorithm to search for the hedging rule. This paper presents a method that derives a hedging rule from theoretical analysis (J.-Y. You and X. Cai, 2008) with an explicit two-period Markov hydrology model, a particular form of nonlinear utility function, and a given inflow probability distribution. The unique procedure is to embed hedging rule derivation based on the marginal utility principle into reservoir operation simulation. The simulation method embedded with the optimization principle for hedging rule derivation will avoid both the inaccuracy problem caused by trail and error with traditional simulation models and the computational difficulty (“curse of dimensionality”) with optimization models. Results show utility improvement with the hedging policy compared to the standard operation policy (SOP), considering factors such as reservoir capacity, inflow level and uncertainty, price elasticity and discount rate. Following the theoretical analysis presented in the companion paper, the condition for hedging application, the starting water availability and ending water availability for hedging, is reexamined with the numerical example; the probabilistic performance of hedging and SOP regarding water supply reliability is compared; and some findings from the theoretical analysis are verified numerically.

Received 31 August 2006; accepted 9 October 2007; published 10 January 2008.

Citation: You, J.-Y., and X. Cai (2008), Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 2. A numerical model, Water Resour. Res., 44, W01416, doi:10.1029/2006WR005482.

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