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GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, VOL. 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142, 2008

Implications of “peak oil” for atmospheric CO₂ and climate

Pushker A. Kharecha

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, New York, USA

James E. Hansen

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, New York, USA

Abstract

Unconstrained CO₂ emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of “proven” and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO₂ and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO₂ from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before midcentury to achieve this CO₂ limit. It is also important to “stretch” conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era “beyond fossil fuels”. We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO₂ beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.

Received 26 November 2007; accepted 18 March 2008; published 5 August 2008.

Keywords: Anthropogenic climate change; carbon dioxide; fossil fuels; global warming; peak oil.

Index Terms: 0428 Biogeosciences: Carbon cycling (4806); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1631 Global Change: Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1843, 3322); 6620 Public Issues: Science policy (0485).

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Citation: Kharecha, P. A., and J. E. Hansen (2008), Implications of “peak oil” for atmospheric CO₂ and climate, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142.

Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.