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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L03809, doi:10.1029/2007GL031101, 2008

On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality

Mark Z. Jacobson

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA


Abstract

Greenhouse gases and particle soot have been linked to enhanced sea-level, snowmelt, disease, heat stress, severe weather, and ocean acidification, but the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on air pollution mortality has not been examined or quantified. Here, it is shown that increased water vapor and temperatures from higher CO2 separately increase ozone more with higher ozone; thus, global warming may exacerbate ozone the most in already-polluted areas. A high-resolution global-regional model then found that CO2 may increase U.S. annual air pollution deaths by about 1000 (350–1800) and cancers by 20–30 per 1 K rise in CO2-induced temperature. About 40% of the additional deaths may be due to ozone and the rest, to particles, which increase due to CO2-enhanced stability, humidity, and biogenic particle mass. An extrapolation by population could render 21,600 (7400–39,000) excess CO2-caused annual pollution deaths worldwide, more than those from CO2-enhanced storminess.

Received 22 June 2007; accepted 3 January 2007; published 12 February 2008.

Keywords: carbon dioxide; climate change; ozone.

Index Terms: 0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: composition and chemistry; 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 0345 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution: urban and regional (0305, 0478, 4251); 0317 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Chemical kinetic and photochemical properties; 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801, 4906).

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Citation: Jacobson, M. Z. (2008), On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L03809, doi:10.1029/2007GL031101.