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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L02701, doi:10.1029/2007GL031966, 2008

Predictability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in the GFDL coupled model

Qian Song

Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


Gabriel A. Vecchi

NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


Anthony J. Rosati

NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


Abstract

We explore the predictability of the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM) at a three-season lead, within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled general circulation model (CGCM). In both control simulations and retrospective forecasts of the 1990's in the CGCM, we find that the occurrence of some IODZM events is preconditioned by oceanic conditions and potentially predictable three seasons in advance, while other IODZM events appear to be triggered by weather noise and have low predictability. The results highlight the necessity for future studies to distinguish periods when the IODZM is more or less predictable and search for its precursory pattern in the ocean.

Received 7 September 2007; accepted 27 November 2007; published 16 January 2008.

Keywords: interannual variability; Indian Ocean Dipole; predictability; ENSO.

Index Terms: 4215 Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513); 4263 Oceanography: General: Ocean predictability and prediction (3238); 9340 Geographic Location: Indian Ocean; 0429 Biogeosciences: Climate dynamics (1620); 4504 Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions (0312, 3339).

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Citation: Song, Q., G. A. Vecchi, and A. J. Rosati (2008), Predictability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in the GFDL coupled model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02701, doi:10.1029/2007GL031966.