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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L03613, doi:10.1029/2007GL032257, 2008

Potential role of the ocean thermostat in determining regional differences in coral reef bleaching events

Joan A. Kleypas

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Gokhan Danabasoglu

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


Janice M. Lough

Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia


Abstract

Several negative feedback mechanisms have been proposed by others to explain the stability of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). If these “ocean thermostat” mechanisms effectively suppress warming in the future, then coral reefs in this region should be less exposed to conditions that favor coral reef bleaching. In this study we look for regional differences in reef exposure and sensitivity to increasing SSTs by comparing reported coral reef bleaching events with observed and modeled SSTs of the last fifty years. Coral reefs within or near the WPWP have had fewer reported bleaching events relative to reefs in other regions. Analysis of SST data indicate that the warmest parts of the WPWP have warmed less than elsewhere in the tropical oceans, which supports the existence of thermostat mechanisms that act to depress warming beyond certain temperature thresholds.

Received 10 October 2007; accepted 3 January 2008; published 9 February 2008.

Keywords: coral bleaching; western Pacific warm pool; ocean thermostat.

Index Terms: 4220 Oceanography: General: Coral reef systems (4916); 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513); 3337 Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models (1626, 4928); 4813 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Ecological prediction; 4954 Paleoceanography: Sea surface temperature.

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Citation: Kleypas, J. A., G. Danabasoglu, and J. M. Lough (2008), Potential role of the ocean thermostat in determining regional differences in coral reef bleaching events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L03613, doi:10.1029/2007GL032257.