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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L04705, doi:10.1029/2007GL032388, 2008

Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions

H. Damon Matthews

Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada


Ken Caldeira

Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, California, USA


Abstract

Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human-induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric CO2 levels are stabilized. In this paper, we assess the CO2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions. We then show that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near-zero future carbon emissions. Our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures. As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.

Received 17 October 2007; accepted 11 January 2008; published 27 February 2008.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions; climate change; climate stabilization.

Index Terms: 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928); 1622 Global Change: Earth system modeling (1225); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912).

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Citation: Matthews, H. D., and K. Caldeira (2008), Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04705, doi:10.1029/2007GL032388.