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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 35,
L02708,
doi:10.1029/2007GL032396,
2008
Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes
Chunzai Wang
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida, USA
Sang-Ki Lee
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
Abstract
A secular warming of sea surface temperature occurs almost everywhere over the global ocean. Here we use observational data
to show that global warming of the sea surface is associated with a secular increase of tropospheric vertical wind shear in
the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased wind shear coincides with a weak but robust downward
trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, a reliable measure of hurricanes over the long term. Warmings over the tropical oceans
compete with one another, with the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans increasing wind shear and the tropical North Atlantic
decreasing wind shear. Warmings in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans win the competition and produce increased wind shear
which reduces U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Whether future global warming increases the vertical wind shear in the MDR for
Atlantic hurricanes will depend on the relative role induced by secular warmings over the tropical oceans.
Received 18
October
2007;
accepted 13
December
2007;
published 23
January
2008.
Keywords: global warming;
Atlantic hurricanes;
climate variability.
Index Terms: 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology; 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309).
Read Full Article (file size: 435182 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Wang, C., and S.-K. Lee
(2008),
Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
35,
L02708,
doi:10.1029/2007GL032396.
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
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