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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L02708, doi:10.1029/2007GL032396, 2008

Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes

Chunzai Wang

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida, USA


Sang-Ki Lee

Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA


Abstract

A secular warming of sea surface temperature occurs almost everywhere over the global ocean. Here we use observational data to show that global warming of the sea surface is associated with a secular increase of tropospheric vertical wind shear in the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased wind shear coincides with a weak but robust downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, a reliable measure of hurricanes over the long term. Warmings over the tropical oceans compete with one another, with the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans increasing wind shear and the tropical North Atlantic decreasing wind shear. Warmings in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans win the competition and produce increased wind shear which reduces U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Whether future global warming increases the vertical wind shear in the MDR for Atlantic hurricanes will depend on the relative role induced by secular warmings over the tropical oceans.

Received 18 October 2007; accepted 13 December 2007; published 23 January 2008.

Keywords: global warming; Atlantic hurricanes; climate variability.

Index Terms: 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 3374 Atmospheric Processes: Tropical meteorology; 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309).

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Citation: Wang, C., and S.-K. Lee (2008), Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02708, doi:10.1029/2007GL032396.