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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L02715, doi:10.1029/2007GL032486, 2008

Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method

Radley Horton

Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA


Celine Herweijer

Risk Management Solutions, London, UK


Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA


Jiping Liu

School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA


Vivien Gornitz

Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA


Alex C. Ruane

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA


Abstract

The semi-empirical relationship between global surface air temperature and mean sea level first developed by Rahmstorf is here applied to the latest generation of Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Our results produce a broader range of sea level rise projections, especially at the higher end, than outlined in IPCC AR4. The range of sea level rise results is CGCM and emissions-scenario dependent, and not sensitive to initial conditions or how the data are filtered temporally. Both the IPCC AR4 and the semi-empirical sea level rise projections described here are likely to underestimate future sea level rise if recent trends in the polar regions accelerate.

Received 26 October 2007; accepted 13 December 2007; published 26 January 2008.

Keywords: sea level rise; climate change; coupled global climate model.

Index Terms: 0399 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: General or miscellaneous; 0720 Cryosphere: Glaciers; 0430 Biogeosciences: Computational methods and data processing.

Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 133240 bytes)

Citation: Horton, R., C. Herweijer, C. Rosenzweig, J. Liu, V. Gornitz, and A. C. Ruane (2008), Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02715, doi:10.1029/2007GL032486.