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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • tsunami
  • probability
  • recurrence

Index Terms

  • Nonlinear Geophysics: Probability distributions, heavy and fat-tailed

Abstract

Distribution of tsunami interevent times

Eric L. Geist

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA

Tom Parsons

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA

The distribution of tsunami interevent times is analyzed using global and site-specific (Hilo, Hawaii) tsunami catalogs. An empirical probability density distribution is determined by binning the observed interevent times during a period in which the observation rate is approximately constant. The empirical distributions for both catalogs exhibit non-Poissonian behavior in which there is an abundance of short interevent times compared to an exponential distribution. Two types of statistical distributions are used to model this clustering behavior: (1) long-term clustering described by a universal scaling law, and (2) Omori law decay of aftershocks and triggered sources. The empirical and theoretical distributions all imply an increased hazard rate after a tsunami, followed by a gradual decrease with time approaching a constant hazard rate. Examination of tsunami sources suggests that many of the short interevent times are caused by triggered earthquakes, though the triggered events are not necessarily on the same fault.

Received 16 November 2007; accepted 27 December 2007; published 26 January 2008.

Citation: Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2008), Distribution of tsunami interevent times, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02612, doi:10.1029/2007GL032690.

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