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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • seasonal climate prediction
  • Indian Ocean Dipole
  • coupled GCM

Index Terms

  • Oceanography: General: Ocean predictability and prediction
  • Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions
  • Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability

Abstract

Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007

Jing-Jia Luo

Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

Swadhin Behera

Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

Yukio Masumoto

Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Hirofumi Sakuma

Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

Toshio Yamagata

Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

During 2006 and 2007 boreal fall, two consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events occurred unprecedentedly regardless of the respective El Niño and La Niña condition in the Pacific. These two pIOD events had large climate impacts, particularly in the Eastern Hemisphere. Experimental forecasts using a coupled model show that the two pIOD events can be predicted 3 or 4 seasons ahead. The evolution of the 2006 pIOD is consistent with the large-scale IOD dynamics, and therefore, it has long-lead predictability owing to the oceanic subsurface memory in the South Indian Ocean. The 2007 pIOD event, however, is rather weak and peculiar without a long memory from the off-equatorial ocean. The model has less predictability for this weak event. The results show that seasonal climate anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere associated with the two pIOD events can be predicted 1–2 seasons ahead. This indicates potential societal benefits of IOD prediction.

Received 30 November 2007; accepted 13 February 2008; published 29 March 2008.

Citation: Luo, J.-J., S. Behera, Y. Masumoto, H. Sakuma, and T. Yamagata (2008), Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14S02, doi:10.1029/2007GL032793.

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