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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L08806, doi:10.1029/2007GL032887, 2008

China: Emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production

Jay S. Gregg

Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA


Robert J. Andres

Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA


Gregg Marland

Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria


Abstract

Release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change. Our best estimate is that China became the largest national source of CO2 emissions during 2006. Previously, the United States (US) had occupied that position. However, the annual emission rate in the US has remained relatively stable between 2001–2006 while the emission rate in China has more than doubled, apparently eclipsing that of the US in late 2006. Here we present the seasonal and spatial pattern of CO2 emissions in China, as well as the sectoral breakdown of emissions. Though our best point estimate places China in the lead position in terms of CO2 emissions, we qualify this statement in a discussion of the uncertainty in the underlying data (3–5% for the US; 15–20% for China). Finally, we comment briefly on the implications of China's new position with respect to international agreements to mitigate climate change.

Received 4 December 2007; accepted 31 March 2008; published 24 April 2008.

Keywords: carbon dioxide; fossil fuel; China.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 0428 Biogeosciences: Carbon cycling (4806); 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912); 6349 Policy Sciences: General or miscellaneous; 9315 Geographic Location: Arctic region (0718, 4207).

Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 2455896 bytes)

Citation: Gregg, J. S., R. J. Andres, and G. Marland (2008), China: Emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08806, doi:10.1029/2007GL032887.