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AGU: Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres

 

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Impacts of global change
  • Global Change: Atmosphere
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Evolution of the atmosphere
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution: urban and regional
  • Global Change: Global climate models
Abstract
Cited By (13)
 

Abstract

Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States

Shiliang Wu

School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Loretta J. Mickley

School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Eric M. Leibensperger

School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Daniel J. Jacob

School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

David Rind

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA

David G. Streets

Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA

We investigate the effects on U.S. ozone air quality from 2000–2050 global changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors by using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (NASA/GISS GCM). We follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario and separate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions through sensitivity simulations. The 2000–2050 changes in anthropogenic emissions reduce the U.S. summer daily maximum 8-hour ozone by 2–15 ppb, but climate change causes a 2–5 ppb positive offset over the Midwest and northeastern United States, partly driven by decreased ventilation from convection and frontal passages. Ozone pollution episodes are far more affected by climate change than mean values, with effects exceeding 10 ppb in the Midwest and northeast. We find that ozone air quality in the southeast is insensitive to climate change, reflecting compensating effects from changes in isoprene emission and air pollution meteorology. We define a “climate change penalty” as the additional emission controls necessary to meet a given ozone air quality target. We find that a 50% reduction in U.S. NOx emissions is needed in the 2050 climate to reach the same target in the Midwest as a 40% reduction in the 2000 climate. Emission controls reduce the magnitude of this climate change penalty and can even turn it into a climate benefit in some regions.

Received 4 May 2007; accepted 26 November 2007; published 19 March 2008.

Citation: Wu, S., L. J. Mickley, E. M. Leibensperger, D. J. Jacob, D. Rind, and D. G. Streets (2008), Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06302, doi:10.1029/2007JD008917.

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