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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH,
VOL. 113,
D02304,
13 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2007JD009081
Uncertainty evaluation of ozone production and its sensitivity to emission changes over the Ile-de-France region during summer periods
Laboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques, UMR CNRS 7583, Universités Paris 7 et Paris 12, Créteil, France
Laboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques, UMR CNRS 7583, Universités Paris 7 et Paris 12, Créteil, France
Aria Technologies SA, Boulogne Billancourt, France
The approach of Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis has been used for evaluating model uncertainty in ozone production and its sensitivity to emission changes. This approach has been applied to the ozone fields calculated by the CHIMERE regional model in the Ile-de-France area during the 1998 and 1999 summer seasons. The AIRPARIF network measurements of urban NO and O3 concentrations and rural O3 over the Ile-de-France region have been used for constraining the Monte Carlo simulations. Our results yield the following major conclusions: (1) The simulated formation of O3 plumes are mainly located in southwestern to southeastern directions downwind the Paris area. (2) Uncertainties on simulated ozone concentrations and several derived quantities are evaluated and reduced using the BMC approach; simulated urban and plume ozone concentrations are enhanced through the observational constraint as compared to those obtained from the unconstrained model. (3) The chemical regime over the urban area of Paris and within plumes is clearly VOC sensitive on the average over two summers. This statement is robust with respect to the BMC uncertainty analysis.
Received 19 June 2007; accepted 7 October 2007; published 19 January 2008.
Citation: (2008), Uncertainty evaluation of ozone production and its sensitivity to emission changes over the Ile-de-France region during summer periods, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02304, doi:10.1029/2007JD009081.
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