Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change

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Read Full Article (file size: 1449604 bytes) Cited by JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113, D05211, doi:10.1029/2007JD009092, 2008 Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change C. L. Heald Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA D. K. Henze Department of Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA L. W. Horowitz Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA J. Feddema Department of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, USA J.-F. Lamarque National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA A. Guenther National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA P. G. Hess National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA F. Vitt National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA J. H. Seinfeld Department of Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA A. H. Goldstein Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA I. Fung Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA Abstract The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation. Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100, primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5–25% increases in surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for 2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden. Received 22 June 2007; accepted 29 November 2007; published 11 March 2008. Keywords: SOA; climate; MEGAN. Index Terms: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801, 4906); 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0426, 1610); 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 0325 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Evolution of the atmosphere (1610, 8125); 0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere: composition and chemistry. Read Full Article (file size: 1449604 bytes) Cited by Citation: Heald, C. L., et al. (2008), Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05211, doi:10.1029/2007JD009092. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

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