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AGU: Water Resources Research

 

Keywords

  • Stochastic rainfall
  • space-time models
  • poisson cluster
  • Neyman–Scott
  • hydrology

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Stochastic hydrology
  • Hydrology: Modeling
  • Hydrology: Precipitation
  • Hydrology: Floods

Abstract

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 44, W09402, 11 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2007WR006110

A space-time Neyman–Scott rainfall model with defined storm extent

M. Leonard

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia

M. F. Lambert

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia

A. V. Metcalfe

School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

P. S. P. Cowpertwait

Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand

In previous formulations, a model based on a Neyman–Scott point process coupled with a spatial Poisson process of cell centers has been used to generate raincells in space and time. For large regions, this specification yields unrealistic cross-correlations between distant sites. This observation motivates further development of the model, where a storm boundary is used to modulate the spatial extent of cell occurrences with respect to the storm center. Multi-site first- and second-order properties of this model are derived and used to fit rainfall statistics from 24 pluviograph (6 minute intensity) gauges and 52 daily gauges across the Sydney metropolitan region.

Received 12 April 2007; accepted 29 May 2008; published 3 September 2008.

Citation: Leonard, M., M. F. Lambert, A. V. Metcalfe, and P. S. P. Cowpertwait (2008), A space-time Neyman–Scott rainfall model with defined storm extent, Water Resour. Res., 44, W09402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006110.

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