FastFind »   Lastname: doi:10.1029/ Year: Advanced Search  

AGU: Global Biogeochemical Cycles

 

Keywords

  • ecosystem
  • carbon cycle
  • prediction

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling
  • Global Change: Climate variability
  • Biogeosciences: Carbon cycling
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction
Abstract
Cited By (0)
 

Abstract

Dynamical prediction of terrestrial ecosystems and the global carbon cycle: A 25-year hindcast experiment

Ning Zeng

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Jin-Ho Yoon

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Augustin Vintzileos

NOAA Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

G. James Collatz

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA

Eugenia Kalnay

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Annarita Mariotti

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

ENEA Casaccia, Rome, Italy

Arun Kumar

NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

Antonio Busalacchi

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

Stephen Lord

NOAA Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

Using a 25-year hindcast experiment, we explore the possibility of seasonal-interannual prediction of terrestrial ecosystems and the global carbon cycle. This has been achieved using a prototype forecasting system in which the dynamic vegetation and terrestrial carbon cycle model VEGAS was forced with 15-member ensemble climate predictions generated by the NOAA/NCEP coupled climate forecasting system (CFS) for the period 1981–2005, with lead times up to 9 months. The results show that the predictability is dominated by the ENSO signal with its major influence on the tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, Indonesia, southern Africa, eastern Australia, western United States, and central Asia. There is also important non-ENSO related predictability such as that associated with midlatitude drought. Comparison of the dynamical prediction results with benchmark statistical prediction methods such as anomaly persistence and damping show that the dynamical method performs significantly better. The hindcasted ecosystem variables and carbon flux show significantly slower decrease in skill at longer lead time compared to the climate forcing variables, partly because of the memories in land and vegetation processes that filter out the higher-frequency noise and sustain the signal.

Received 14 January 2008; accepted 15 August 2008; published 4 December 2008.

Citation: Zeng, N., J.-H. Yoon, A. Vintzileos, G. J. Collatz, E. Kalnay, A. Mariotti, A. Kumar, A. Busalacchi, and S. Lord (2008), Dynamical prediction of terrestrial ecosystems and the global carbon cycle: A 25-year hindcast experiment, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB4015, doi:10.1029/2008GB003183.

Cited By

Please wait one moment ...