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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • Arctic Ocean
  • sea ice
  • ensemble prediction

Index Terms

  • Oceanography: Physical: Ice mechanics and air/sea/ice exchange processes
  • Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography
  • Oceanography: General: Ocean predictability and prediction
  • Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling

Abstract

Ensemble 1-Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008

Jinlun Zhang

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

Mike Steele

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

Ron Lindsay

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

Axel Schweiger

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

James Morison

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

Ensemble predictions of arctic sea ice in spring and summer 2008 have been carried out using an ice-ocean model. The ensemble is constructed by using atmospheric forcing from 2001 to 2007 and the September 2007 ice and ocean conditions estimated by the model. The prediction results show that the record low ice cover and the unusually warm ocean surface waters in summer 2007 lead to a substantial reduction in ice thickness in 2008. Up to 1.2 m ice thickness reduction is predicted in a large area of the Canada Basin in both spring and summer of 2008, leading to extraordinarily thin ice in summer 2008. There is a 50% chance that both the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage will be nearly ice free in September 2008. It is not likely there will be another precipitous decline in arctic sea ice extent such as seen in 2007, unless a new atmospheric forcing regime, significantly different from the recent past, occurs.

Received 10 January 2008; accepted 21 March 2008; published 22 April 2008.

Citation: Zhang, J., M. Steele, R. Lindsay, A. Schweiger, and J. Morison (2008), Ensemble 1-Year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08502, doi:10.1029/2008GL033244.

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