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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • climate models
  • extreme event forecast
  • ensemble

Index Terms

  • Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction
  • Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic forecasting
  • Atmospheric Processes: Regional modeling
  • Atmospheric Processes: Climatology

Abstract

Freeze probability of Florida in a regional climate model and climate indices

Yoshie Goto-Maeda

Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA

D. W. Shin

Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA

James J. O'Brien

Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA

Severe freezes impacting agriculture in Florida were associated with some major climate patterns, such as El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we examined whether seasonal ensemble integrations of a regional model could capture the tendencies of freezes in the Florida peninsula during each ENSO or NAO phase. Mean excess values of minimum temperatures from thresholds on the basis of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), which represents the extreme data in a dataset, were used to analyze the freezes in the regional model. According to previous studies, El Niño winters are assumed to obtain fewer freezes than the other phases. Although ensembles of only 19 winters were simulated, the ensembles found similar variability patterns in minimum temperatures in each climate phase to the findings in the previous studies based on observed data.

Received 21 February 2008; accepted 6 May 2008; published 14 June 2008.

Citation: Goto-Maeda, Y., D. W. Shin, and J. J. O'Brien (2008), Freeze probability of Florida in a regional climate model and climate indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11703, doi:10.1029/2008GL033720.

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