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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • flood forecasting
  • hydrology

Index Terms

  • Hydrology: Floods
  • Hydrology: Hydrometeorology
  • Hydrology: Modeling
  • Atmospheric Processes: General or miscellaneous
  • Hydrology: Estimation and forecasting

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L10404, 7 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2008GL033837

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Florian Pappenberger

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

Jens Bartholmes

Institute for Environment and Sustainability, DG Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy

Jutta Thielen

Institute for Environment and Sustainability, DG Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy

Hannah L. Cloke

Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK

Roberto Buizza

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

Ad de Roo

Institute for Environment and Sustainability, DG Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.

Received 5 March 2008; accepted 11 April 2008; published 24 May 2008.

Citation: Pappenberger, F., J. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, H. L. Cloke, R. Buizza, and A. de Roo (2008), New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10404, doi:10.1029/2008GL033837.

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