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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 35,
L12703,
6 PP., 2008
doi:10.1029/2008GL033955
Spring frost risk in a changing climate
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
While both the mean and variance of daily temperature are forecasted to increase in future climate scenarios, studies of spring frost risk to vegetation have relied on changes in mean temperature to understand frost risk in these scenarios. We present a probabilistic model of spring frost risk based on the stochastic-crossing properties of a coupled temperature-phenology model in which the mean, variance, and autocorrelation structure of spring temperature may be controlled through independent parameters. The model results show that frost risk to vegetation is as sensitive to increases in daily temperature variance (which increases frost risk) as to increases in the mean temperature (which decreases frost risk).
Received 12 March 2008; accepted 2 May 2008; published 20 June 2008.
Citation: (2008), Spring frost risk in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12703, doi:10.1029/2008GL033955.
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