When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

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Editor's Highlight Read Full Article (file size: 1386358 bytes) Cited by GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L14703, doi:10.1029/2008GL034071, 2008 When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? Andreas Sterl Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands Camiel Severijns Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands Henk Dijkstra Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands Wilco Hazeleger Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands Michiel van den Broeke Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands Gerrit Burgers Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands Bart van den Hurk Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands Peter Jan van Leeuwen Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands Peter van Velthoven Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands Abstract In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century. Received 20 March 2008; accepted 28 May 2008; published 19 July 2008. Keywords: extreme temperatures. Index Terms: 1605 Global Change: Abrupt/rapid climate change (4901, 8408); 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change (1225); 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1626 Global Change: Global climate models (3337, 4928). Read Full Article (file size: 1386358 bytes) Cited by Citation: Sterl, A., C. Severijns, H. Dijkstra, W. Hazeleger, G. Jan van Oldenborgh, M. van den Broeke, G. Burgers, B. van den Hurk, P. Jan van Leeuwen, and P. van Velthoven (2008), When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14703, doi:10.1029/2008GL034071. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

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