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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Keywords

  • extreme temperatures

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Abrupt/rapid climate change
  • Global Change: Impacts of global change
  • Global Change: Regional climate change
  • Global Change: Global climate models

Abstract

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

Andreas Sterl

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

Camiel Severijns

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

Henk Dijkstra

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Wilco Hazeleger

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

Michiel van den Broeke

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Gerrit Burgers

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

Bart van den Hurk

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Peter Jan van Leeuwen

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Peter van Velthoven

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Received 20 March 2008; accepted 28 May 2008; published 19 July 2008.

Citation: Sterl, A., C. Severijns, H. Dijkstra, W. Hazeleger, G. Jan van Oldenborgh, M. van den Broeke, G. Burgers, B. van den Hurk, P. Jan van Leeuwen, and P. van Velthoven (2008), When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14703, doi:10.1029/2008GL034071.

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